I have received this question in the past and recently. I decided to post my answer as a blog post for future references.
A student asks, "There are like 11 project ideas for your organization. Based on my observation, I see that you have received only 4 - 6 final projects accepted, despite having 10+ project ideas. Now I work hard for a project idea, and what if you guys decide not to select the project idea because that idea is not important to your organization? Will my hard work go wasted? So is this pure luck?"
I decided to leave a detailed answer as the primary organization administrator for GSoC/Emory BMI.
I decided to leave a detailed answer as the primary organization administrator for GSoC/Emory BMI.
tl;dr: Work on your project idea and be the best. Avoid worrying about the selection process.
The long answer: One thing I can assure is, most GSoC organizations select students. Not project ideas. As much as I know, GSoC organizations (including us) don't list project ideas that are not the priority to them. That means, all the ideas have near-equal priority (of course, there will be minor variations among the project priorities).
In the worst case, I have experienced in the past once when 2 of the best students apply to the same project, the mentors tried to encourage the 2nd best student to apply for another project in the same organization. Every organization is different, and every mentor is different. So don't quote me on this with another organization.
The long answer: One thing I can assure is, most GSoC organizations select students. Not project ideas. As much as I know, GSoC organizations (including us) don't list project ideas that are not the priority to them. That means, all the ideas have near-equal priority (of course, there will be minor variations among the project priorities).
In the worst case, I have experienced in the past once when 2 of the best students apply to the same project, the mentors tried to encourage the 2nd best student to apply for another project in the same organization. Every organization is different, and every mentor is different. So don't quote me on this with another organization.
Wearing my ex-GSoC student hat, my advice to current potential students is, try to be the best among the organization's potential applicants. Remember you also can apply for up to 3 projects if you are worried a lot. I have been a GSoC student 4 times successfully (now you can be a student only twice. But those days, no such limitation). 2 out of 4 times, I applied to more than one project. During my first GSoC as a student (2009), I applied for 2 projects in the same organization. The mentors choose one project that was the most relevant for them among the 2, I applied. In 2014, I applied to 3 different organizations and 2 chose my proposal (and of course in that case, mentors try to contact you to find your first option, or sometimes agree upon themselves which organization should accept you. You can of course work on only one GSoC project at a year. No exception).
Now, my only worry as an organization administrator that Google may not give the maximum number of slots we (open source organizations) want. Google has a limited budget and a number of students in mind. It is around 1000 students. Therefore, many organizations do not get the number of students they want. Of course, we always can ask for one additional slot than they offered. But still, there is no guarantee. I ***guess*** we will get 4 - 5 slots this year. But that is just a guess. But I strongly believe, we will get at least 2 slots. Definitely not possible to get 11 slots. That means, some of our ideas won't have students working on them as a result. But that is life. ;)
To answer your comments on the discussions in Quora on GSoC: Take them with a grain of salt. Many of them i) are subjective, ii) plainly wrong despite their high up-votes iii) often come from someone who has never been a student or a mentor, iv) based on limited experience, or v) outdated as GSoC has changed its rules during the past 15 years.
Now, stop worrying and focus on working on the project ideas. Optimism and hard work go a long way! Make sure to do your research and show your talents to the mentor. We can only choose one student for a project idea, and naturally, that goes to the best candidate.
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